Estimated time: 25–35 minutes.Includes the activity and its built-in responses. Extra assignments may take longer.
Mission 01 · July 28, 2026Hormuz traffic severely disrupted
BriefMapDecideShockDebrief
3-minute intelligence brief
The narrow water, the wide crisis
Before the 2026 war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the strait after U.S. and Israeli attacks in late February. Mines, attacks, insurance withdrawal, and rival navigation schemes have kept ordinary traffic extremely low.
Today Iran and Oman are negotiating over who should manage the lanes. Iran wants more traffic routed through waters it can monitor. Oman has proposed regional management and voluntary fees for navigation and rescue services. Gulf states want passage without mandatory Iranian tolls.
Geography: the strait lies between Iran and Oman and narrows to about 21 miles.
Asymmetry: Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess large bypass pipelines; Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain do not.
The second gate: Saudi oil sent west reaches the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks now threaten Bab el-Mandeb.
The catch: pipeline capacity is not the same as dependable delivered exports. Ports, pumps, politics, security, and the next chokepoint all matter.
What are you trying to accomplish?
Restore energy movement without causing a larger war, then invest in routes that make the region less brittle. This is a classroom model: the outcomes are informed estimates, not predictions.
20.9mbarrels/day through Hormuz in the first half of 2025
11.4 Bcfdaily LNG flow, mostly from Qatar
89%of Hormuz crude and condensate went to Asia
4.7mbarrels/day of estimated spare Saudi–UAE bypass capacity before the war
Layer 1/4 · contested lanes
Inspect all four map layers to continue.
Contested navigation
Iranian mines have made the old international traffic lanes unusable. Iran and Oman now promote different temporary routes.
Navigation laneOperating routeFuture routeDisrupted or exposed
Routes are geographically placed but simplified for classroom use; line width does not represent capacity.
Select an exporter
Who can escape the strait?
Tap each country. A pipeline on paper is not necessarily a route available today.
Open at least four country files.
Energy flow12
Escalation risk72
Long-term resilience24
Decision 1 · reopen the water
Choose the least-dangerous imperfect plan
Each option restores some confidence and movement, but each gives a different actor more control. Select one; then the model will introduce a second crisis.
New event: the second gate tightens
Houthi forces threaten Saudi-linked shipping at Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline still reaches Yanbu, but cargoes sailing toward Asia must pass the threatened strait or take the long route around Africa. A bypass has led to another bottleneck.
Decision 2 · buy future resilience
You have 6 infrastructure credits
Choose up to two projects. Future capacity is uncertain, and construction cannot solve today’s emergency.
Credits remaining
Select projects whose combined cost does not exceed 6.
Field Credential Chokepoint Strategist
Mission complete
You managed a network, not a line.
Notes in this activity are temporary. Copy any work you need, and submit assigned responses in Canvas or D2L.
Sources and modeling notes
Baseline energy flows and bypass estimates: U.S. Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints, updated March 3, 2026. Current navigation proposals: Reuters reports of Oman’s regional-management plan and Iran’s counterproposal, July 28, 2026. Red Sea risk: Reuters, July 16, 2026. Iraq–Syria alternatives: Reuters reports from June 19 and July 23, 2026. Pipeline paths are simplified. Decision outcomes are transparent classroom assumptions, not forecasts.